Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 2.117360 2.229800 2.350530 2.490841 2.650816 2.829293 3.046080
2025-06-08 1.977832 2.119593 2.278047 2.470976 2.703528 2.980548 3.345311
2025-06-15 1.903649 2.066825 2.254872 2.492445 2.792418 3.171149 3.710038
2025-06-22 1.799405 1.968083 2.165905 2.421341 2.753178 3.188087 3.840666
2025-06-29 1.742545 1.920286 2.132542 2.413004 2.788799 3.302549 4.123960
2025-07-06 1.676194 1.856379 2.074164 2.366479 2.766699 3.330778 4.277392
2025-07-13 1.652888 1.843329 2.077458 2.398859 2.853114 3.523879 4.741559
2025-07-20 1.644143 1.847213 2.101484 2.459310 2.983702 3.802410 5.448984
2025-07-27 1.613191 1.821054 2.084424 2.461170 3.027025 3.946103 5.946944
2025-08-03 1.585742 1.797930 2.069758 2.464661 3.072056 4.098542 6.533818
2025-08-10 1.536655 1.744883 2.012646 2.403735 3.010310 4.050189 6.599513
2025-08-17 1.509594 1.719621 1.991885 2.394162 3.029569 4.154183 7.131898
2025-08-24 1.480925 1.692256 1.968403 2.381154 3.045306 4.260789 7.772671
2025-08-31 1.452730 1.664495 1.943113 2.363752 3.051776 4.349868 8.438438
2025-09-07 1.438953 1.655257 1.942762 2.383414 3.122508 4.586153 9.963557
2025-09-14 1.398595 1.609185 1.889253 2.318868 3.040477 4.473511 9.789592
2025-09-21 1.378658 1.590109 1.873094 2.311295 3.059213 4.593035 10.994175
2025-09-28 1.348726 1.556752 1.835695 2.268902 3.012024 4.551774 11.244888
2025-10-05 1.342709 1.555637 1.843954 2.298420 3.098444 4.849083 14.608579
2025-10-12 1.344468 1.565063 1.867487 2.353410 3.238687 5.330888 24.777421
2025-10-19 1.330643 1.552545 1.858615 2.355099 3.275567 5.542929 38.846923
2025-10-26 1.317885 1.541150 1.850949 2.358271 3.315619 5.778983 109.088276
2025-11-02 1.289403 1.507245 1.809202 2.302861 3.231513 5.602360 79.153249